Proving ROI Clarity: How a Betting Operator Optimised Spend with Jurnii

The Challenge

Measuring the Real Impact of a $350K Regional Campaign

Our client, a leading betting operator, was facing challenges related to:

• Lack of clarity on incremental performance Difficulty isolating the effect of region-specific marketing from organic activity and seasonal trends.
• Inefficient budget allocation Medium-spend days showed unclear returns, with some high-cost channels underperforming.
• Conversion drop-off Traffic volume increases did not translate into proportional deposit growth.

The objective was to measure the campaign’s true impact by:

1. Isolating the regions marketing performance against a matched control region.
2. Analysing channel cost-efficiency vs industry benchmarks.
3. Linking daily spend patterns to sessions, deposits, and first-time deposits (FTDs) to identify optimisation opportunities.

The Solution

A Research-Led, User-Centric Approach

Jurnii deployed a strategic mix of statistical modelling, benchmark analysis, and performance segmentation to deliver clear, data-backed recommendations for budget optimisation.

1. Data Collection & Experimental Setup

• Used Google’s Causal Impact to create a counterfactual scenario and measure lift or decline vs expected performance.
• Gathered daily session, deposit attempt, and FTD data for Region 1 (treatment) and Region 2 (control).
• Integrated daily spend data to assess relationships between spend level and performance.

Key learning:  While sessions rose with higher spend, conversions (deposits/FTDs) remained largely flat, indicating diminishing returns.

2. Spend Tier Analysis

Participants: Marketing analytics team, campaign managers.

Methods: Time-series segmentation into low, medium, and high spend days.

Tasks Tested:

• Compare average sessions across spend tiers.
• Compare average deposits and FTDs across spend tiers.
• Map spend over time to detect spikes and their effects.

Key Outcomes:

• Low spend (~$2k/day): ~2,038 sessions/day.
• Medium spend (~$3–4k/day): Minimal session lift, no deposit change.
• High spend (~$5k+/day): ~2,391 sessions/day (+17% vs low spend), +2 deposits/day.

3. Channel Efficiency Review

Benchmarked CPMs against competitors:

Display: $8.59 CPM vs Industry Standard $1.52. CTV: $35 CPM — premium but in line with norms. DOOH/Rideshare: Within expected range. Podcast: Mid-to-high CPM range.

Identified that high-CPM channels did not deliver proportional conversion growth.

4. Validation Through Geo-Control Analysis

Primary Metrics Tracked:  Sessions: +17% at high spend days.  Deposits: Flat to +2/day at high spend.  FTDs: –20.8% vs expected in Causal Impact model.

Interpretation: Higher awareness did not generate meaningful incremental conversions, suggesting budget inefficiencies.

The Outcome

Minimal Incremental ROI

The project delivered clear outcomes across marketing efficiency and performance tracking:

• Identified diminishing returns beyond a certain spend level.
• Revealed that some channels carried high CPMs without conversion impact.
• Demonstrated the value of geo-control modelling for campaign measurement. - Established a framework for spend vs performance optimisation.

Why This Matters

This case shows why regional marketing must be measured for incremental lift rather than raw volume. By uncovering diminishing returns and channel inefficiencies, Jurnii enabled the client to focus budget where it drives both awareness and conversions - not just impressions.